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Assessing the Global Problem of Climate Change
Professor Richard N. Cooper
According to Professor Cooper, there are three structural
problems in addressing global climate change. First, climate change
is a global problem, and because all countries contribute to this problem,
all countries must get involved in its solution. Second, actions to
mitigate global climate change involve risks of incurring costs in the
present and offer highly uncertain benefits in the distant future, making
this an unattractive investment to politicians facing reelection every
two to five years. Third, in order to be effective, actions to mitigate
climate change have to be taken by hundreds of millions of firms and
households.
This need for mass participation makes the requirements for international
agreements about climate unique. Most other international agreements
bind the behavior of governments as they relate to other governments.
In the case of climate change, however, governments need to agree with
other governments about what their residents need to do. This poses
a much greater challenge than is true with the typical treaty. For all
of these reasons, collective actions on policy change won't be effective.
Societies typically take dramatic action only in response to dramatic
events, and Cooper says that it will take at least three really hot
summers in a row even to attract the attention of the body politic to
this issue, and even then the prospect for action is less probable because
of the need for wide international involvement.
Cooper presents two observations about how we should not deal with climate
change. First he describes the work of Bjorn Lomborg, a Danish statistician,
environmentalist, and former member of Greenpeace, who asserted that
many environmentalist claims are based on flimsy evidence or mere conjectures.
Lomborg’s book, The Skeptical Environmentalist, was hotly
challenged by Danish environmentalists; the outcry, says Cooper, took
on "the smell of a historical witch hunt." Claims and counterclaims
should be assessed coolly, on the basis of evidence and cogent reasoning,
he advises, not on the basis of sentiment. Second, Cooper warns against
dealing with this complex problem by rallying around some kind of overly
simple solution and ramming it through the political process. That has
been the approach of some European governments with respect to the Kyoto
Protocol.
Although Cooper considers the Kyoto Protocol a flawed document, and
says the Bush administration was wise not to sign it, he adds that it
was wrong of the administration not to offer a viable alternative. States
Cooper, The administration's program of voluntary reductions of 18 percent
of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2010, he states, can only
be described as laughable. With American businesses competing against
foreign firms, and companies trying desperately trying to cut costs,
they cannot voluntarily incur expensive new commitments.
The substance of the Bush climate policy is to rely on technical fixes:
fuel cells that replace oil as automotive fuel, large-scale sequestration
of carbon dioxide, and nuclear energy as a replacement for coal-fired
generation of electricity and hydrogen. The strategy of relying on such
technical solutions is not absurd, Cooper explains, but their time frame
exceeds the next decade. We have time, Cooper says; the question is
whether we have the perseverance. |
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