Global Climate Policy and the Kyoto Protocol
Professor Michael McElroy


The first serious step to address climate change, the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (or F.C.C.C.), made a clear statement that the risk of global climate change was dangerous for mankind. It also made a distinction between the responsibilities of developed countries that burned a lot of carbon in the past, and those of developing countries that may create the environmental problems of the future. The Convention led to a series of meetings that developed the Kyoto Protocol. The F.C.C.C., which was ratified by the United States, included voluntary steps to insure that U.S. emissions in 2000 did not exceeded its emissions in 1990. However, the U.S. didn't meet its commitment.

According to McElroy, the Kyoto Protocol is an extremely complicated document. The protocol officially goes into effect once it has been signed by 55 industrialized nations that accounted for at least 55 percent of the global greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries in 1990. Although the U.S. signed the agreement on November 12, 1998, approval by a two-thirds majority in the Senate was not ratified. Nevertheless, the protocol appears to be on the verge of U.N. ratification without the signature of the U.S.

McElroy states that despite President George W. Bush's failure to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the Bush administration has not presented a coherent climate policy of its own, but only a statement that the administration will continue to grow the economy while producing relatively lower emissions of greenhouse gases. However, notes McElroy, even though our economy has grown more energy efficient with time, if we extrapolate both economic growth of 3 percent per year from now to 2008 and increased energy efficiency for the same period, even if all of the assumptions are met, the U.S. will be emitting 23 percent more CO2 in 2008 than it did in 1990.