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Conclusion: Climate Change Policy Dilemma
Professor Michael McElroy
According to McElroy, although the Bush administration
had legitimate grounds for criticizing the Kyoto Protocol as a flawed
document, there is also an obligation to propose an alternative. One
of the problems with the protocol, for example, has to do with the time
scale by which it attempts to deal with climate change. To significantly
replace the U.S. energy infrastructure —from power plants to cars
—within one brief decade, for example, would place unreasonable
costs on the economy. A longer-range strategy of CO2 reduction would
be more economically viable.
McElroy cites one interesting recent development: the bill filed jointly
by Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman that instructs the administration
to go back to the negotiating table and offer the F.C.C.C. a specific
proposal to reduce U.S. emissions, but on a more relaxed time scale.
McElroy says there is no reason to rush to reduce greenhouse emissions,
because the chemistry of CO2 is such that about half of what we put
into the atmosphere stays there. (In fact, half of the CO2 emitted into
the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution is still there.) A more
measured goal of significant Co2 reduction by 2050 or 2075 would insure
helpful action without disrupting the U.S.'s economy. McElroy reminds
us that, despite some uncertainty, reasonable scientific models do project
that changes now occurring in the global and regional environment are
very serious and occur in a relatively brief period of time. A prudent
approach, therefore, to dealing with potential future climate change
is one of insurance: effecting change in ways that are sensible and
aggressive, that improve the efficiency of the energy system and improve
national security, and at the same time contribute to a more secure
future environment.
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